What Makes This American Government Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Government closures have become a recurring element of US politics – but this one feels particularly intractable due to shifting political forces along with bad blood among both major parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the deadlock have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp this time because each side – as well as the nation's leader – can see some merit in digging in.
Here are several key factors that make this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods that their party more forcefully fights the current presidency. Well now the party leadership has a chance to show their responsiveness.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a government closure in the spring. Now he's digging in.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to demonstrate their ability to reclaim some control from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to restrict executive utilization of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further the cutbacks to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to cut "Democrat agencies".
Administration officials said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials have been consulting with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the key official.
The budget director has previously declared the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
Whereas past government closures typically involved late-night talks among political opponents in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader a Republican, charged opposition members of not being serious toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior in the House, in which the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Experts project about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave due to the government closure.
That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity tied to business comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems already being roiled from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, experts indicate that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.
